Posts By: The CP Journal

The Science of Capability Management: The Planning Element

March 17, 2019 in Exclusive Content

We posted an article on the CP Journal blog this morning about the benefits of having a structure to break down and assess an organization’s capabilities, and there is one element of this process that we wanted to expand upon right away.  As the Academy offers subscribers opportunities to practice what they learn in ways that deepen their expertise and skills through repetition, we wanted to offer some of our own lessons learned from building and managing capabilities that you can apply in your organizations.  We recommend reading the aforementioned article, “The Science of Capability Management”, before reading on.

One of the reasons why capability management is so important for protectors is because it is one of the few areas that they can be in control of.  When you, as one of those protectors, consider the three buckets of control and the limitations that protectors and warriors face when focusing solely on the adversary, the capabilities that you develop for your teams and organizations is the way to ensure that you continue to make progress on the important tasks of preparing for the conflicts and battles ahead.

Using the POETE framework that we discussed in our article from this morning as a means to assess the underlying components to a capability is one that we’ve experimented with over the last year since it was released in the 2018 THIRA Guide.  The challenge we had in integrating the POETE framework into our process, however, was that the definitions of what goes into the Planning, Organization, Equipment, Training and Exercising of a capability wasn’t deep or comprehensive. Since the definitions provided in the guide were only one bullet point deep, it took some time and iterations for us to determine what we would need in each category to unlock the full potential of an objective approach to assessing a capability.

We will break down and discuss each POETE element separately here in the Academy, with this first post focusing on the “P” – Planning.

The Planning Section of the capability assessment is designed to help create the plans for how your capability will be put into action. The challenge we ran into when we were first implementing the POETE framework, however, was that “go create a plan” as an action item was neither specific nor comprehensive enough to address the questions and challenges that a leader faces when developing and maintaining their organization’s capabilities.  Over the last year, we have refined the way we use the planning element to include the following items before we move on to the other elements of the capability comfortably.

What goes into our adapted planning element is the following:

Continue reading »

Reading Behavior In Conversation: Part 6

August 13, 2018 in Assessing Individuals

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This is the sixt of a six part exercise to read behavior of both sides of a conversation using an incident where police officers were called to a home where there was the report of a potential break in.

(Video Source)

The Workout

  • Context: In the following video, two police officers talk with a man who was reported being seen outside of a home while carrying a shovel.  In this sixth part, the first officer who spoke with the man has returned from her patrol car to and approaches while the second officer and man engage in a confrontation.
  • Because of the length of the video, this exercise will be broken up into a six-part series.
  • Task 1:First, assess the man being contacted’s behavior and identify the observations that support that assessment before the confrontation.
  • Task 2: Second, assess the police officer’s behavior and identify the observations that support that assessment before the confrontation.  View this from the perspective of the man being contacted.
  • Task 3: Is the dominance displayed by the officer (as likely perceived by the man) at the same intensity as in previous clips or displayed at a different intensity?
  • Note: We acknowledge that the assessment in Task #3 is HIGHLY subjective.  We aren’t in the officer’s head and haven’t talked to him.  We are basing this assessment (when it is different than the behavior observed in Task #2) on the observations and behaviors we can collect in this video.
  • Write your answers on a sheet of paper before viewing our answers

View Our Answers

  • Task 1: The Man (Initially): The Dominant Cluster
      • Makes an accusation: He makes a phone call and says to the person on the other end “come to my mom’s house, the police is over here and they harassing me.”
      • Says to the officer: “you can’t grab my phone like that.”
  • Task 2: The Police Officer (As assessed by man): The Dominant Cluster
    • The officer has come to the top of the steps, blocking him in.
    • Makes contact with the man, grabbing his phone.
    • Fights the man to get control.
  • Task 3: Yes, displayed at a higher intensity.
    • The officer has moved from verbal and non-verbal dominance to physically controlling the man.
  • Add a comment with the assessments that you made, but that we didn’t make, so that other viewers can benefit from your analysis as well.

Enhance The Workout

  • Repeat
    • Were they any behavioral indicators given off by the man on the porch that contradict the dominant assessment or was the man displaying consistent dominance?
  • Reflect
    • Was this the logical conclusion of the event or were there other options that the police officer could have taken to gain control over the man and the situation?
    • Note: we aren’t saying that the officer should have done something different, the question is to simply think about other potential courses of action the officer could have taken to accomplish the goal so that you have the ability to adapt in any given situation.
  • Act
    • In a conversation this week, identify two ways that you could deal with a confrontational conversation before it begins.
    • Start with one approach, and then shift to get a feel for the challenge and the comfort that comes with practicing a change in behavior.

Related Content:

Reading Behavior In Conversation: Part 4

February 2, 2018 in Assessing Individuals

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This is the fourth of a six part exercise to read behavior of both sides of a conversation using an incident where police officers were called to a home where there was the report of a potential break in.

(Video Source)

The Workout

  • Context: In the following video, two police officers talk with a man who was reported being seen outside of a home while carrying a shovel.  In this fourth part, the first officer who spoke with the man is at her patrol car to check on his information, while the second officer is speaking with the man.
  • Because of the length of the video, this exercise will be broken up into a six-part series.
  • Task 1: First, assess the man being contacted’s behavior and identify the observations that support that assessment.
  • Task 2: Second, are there any changes in the man’s behavior when this 4th segment is compared to the first three parts of this exercise?
  • Task 3: Third, assess the police officer’s behavior and identify the observations that support that assessment.  View this from the perspective of the man being contacted.
  • Task 4: Fourth, Identify the cluster of behavior that the police officer likely believes that he is displaying towards the man and identify the observations that support that assessment.
  • Note: We acknowledge that the assessment in task #4 is HIGHLY subjective.  We aren’t in the officer’s head and haven’t talked to him.  We are basing this assessment (when it is different than the behavior observed in Task #3) on the observations and behaviors we can collect in this video.
  • Write your answers on a sheet of paper before viewing our answers

View Our Answers

  • I assess the man as falling into two clusters during the video
  • Task 1: The Man (Initially): The Uncomfortable Cluster
    • Takes a couple of deep breaths
    • Continues to try and get his mom on the phone
    • He leans back in his chair and then immediately comes back forward
    • He crosses his legs and then quickly uncrosses them
    • He is tight lipped with details until he is asked for more information
    • He gets a bit frazzled while trying to pronounce his last name
  • Task 2: Are there any changes in the man’s behavior?
    • Yes
  • The Man (At The End): Begins shifting into The Dominant Cluster
    • In response to getting asked if he has any warrants on file – begins getting annoyed with the questions.  Answers the question abruptly.
    • Says, “I don’t know what the problem is…” in response to the question about an ID and appears to be getting more annoyed that the police are still there despite the fact he has already explained his story.
    • Starts to walk down the stairs so they can go talk to Charlie – trying to get definitive proof that he isn’t a criminal.
    • Illustrating gestures begin to change towards making points explicitly clear
  • Task 3: The Police Officer (As assessed by man): The Dominant Cluster
    • Continues to question the man’s story and tries pin down where he lives
    • Asserts authority: “You can put it on speaker phone.”
    • Asks if he has any warrants on file for him
    • Ue off emblem gestures when he gives the man the “thumbs up” sign when explaining the confusion for the last name.
  • The Police Officer (As likely assessed internally): The Comfortable Cluster
    • It appears that he acknowledges that he believes him.  After the call, the man says, “You do believe me, right?” The officer doesn’t verbalize it, but the man’s response indicates that the officer likely nodded his head or something.
    • Tries the joke again, “People don’t typically break in and then sit on the porch.”
    • When the man tries to go get the neighbor, Charlie, says “No, we straight” – indicating that he doesn’t actually see the guy as a likely criminal.
  • Add a comment with the assessments that you made, but that we didn’t make, so that other viewers can benefit from your analysis as well.

Enhance The Workout

  • Repeat
    • Rewatch the video as many times as is necessary to identify each of the observations that we have identified for the man, the way the officer is likely being perceived by the man, and the way the officer is likely perceiving his own actions.
    • Despite the fact that there is only 10 seconds of interaction, that provides a long enough period of time to build a cluster of at least 3 indicators for each assessment.
    • Being able to quickly establish the initial cluster (the baseline for the man being contacted), is critical so that you can have a point of reference to measure any changes in behavior against.
  • Reflect
    • Are there any times in your life where you have observed a discrepancy between the type of behavior you think you are displaying and the way another person might be perceiving you?
    • This is what is commonly referred to as a miscommunication, where what someone says (whether verbally or nonverbally) is interpreted differently by the person receiving the message than the person communicating it.
    • Think about times where you may have been part of a miscommunication and assess the difference in the cluster of behavior used to express whatever was being talked about.  The goal isn’t to focus on the content of the words conversation itself, but in the way it was expressed.
  • Act
    • As we seek to minimize miscommunications, being able to view a conversation that you are having from a detached perspective is a skill that takes practice.  You are viewing this in a POV way as the footage is from the officer’s body camera, but try to envision seeing this as an outsider.  How is the officer standing? How is he (likely) sizing up the man? How is the man (likely) sizing up the officer?
    • Throughout the week, use some conversations that you are in as an opportunity to practice detaching yourself and viewing the interaction as an outsider, where you can observe yourself through the eyes of another.  It won’t come naturally at first, it absolutely takes work, but is a skill that once developed, can be a huge asset in your ability to assess other people and influence their future actions and behavior.

Related Content:

Reading Behavior In Conversation: Part 3

January 30, 2018 in Assessing Individuals

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This is the third of a six part exercise to read behavior of both sides of a conversation using an incident where police officers were called to a home where there was the report of a potential break in.

(Video Source)

The Workout

  • Context: In the following video, two police officers talk with a man who was reported being seen outside of a home while carrying a shovel.  In this third part, the first officer who spoke with the man is at her patrol car to check on his information, while the second officer is speaking with the man.
  • Because of the length of the video, this exercise will be broken up into a six-part series.
  • Task 1: First, assess the man being contacted’s behavior and identify the observations that support that assessment.
  • Task 2: Second, identify one potential reason for the man’s behavior that indicates a criminal/violent/illegitimate intent and one potential reason for the man’s behavior that is legitimate/not-criminal/non-violent
  • Task 3: Third, assess the police officer’s behavior and identify the observations that support that assessment.  View this from the perspective of the man being contacted.
  • Task 4: Fourth, Identify the cluster of behavior that the police officer likely believes that he is displaying towards the man and identify the observations that support that assessment.
  • Note: We acknowledge that the assessment in task #4 is HIGHLY subjective.  We aren’t in the officer’s head and haven’t talked to him.  We are basing this assessment (when it is different than the behavior observed in Task #3) on the observations and behaviors we can collect in this video.
  • Write your answers on a sheet of paper before viewing our answers

View Our Answers

  • The Man: The Uncomfortable Cluster
    • An increase of illustrating gestures: he recreates everything that he was doing so that the officer can see that he wasn’t breaking into the home.
    • Very quickly rebuts the officer’s assertion that he was breaking into the house (or that neighbors called because it looked like he was).
    • He clarifies partial information given before: “I’m in and out.”
    • He begins identifying all of the people who can vouch for him and prove that he does in fact belong at this house.
    • Attempts to call his mom so that she can tell the officer that he wasn’t breaking in.
  • Potential Reasons For Behavior
    • Criminal/Violent/Illegitimate: Is uncomfortable because he was actually trying to break in and is about to get caught.  Another reason is that he has a criminal history and that the police officer is perceived as a threat because he could catch him.
    • Non-violent/Non-criminal/Legitimate: He is worried that he will be seen as lying and falsely accused or in trouble, even though he hasn’t done anything wrong.  If he does in fact live at that house, the police officers have entered onto his property (his anchor point). His discomfort could also be the result of the officer’s display of dominance because he doesn’t have the ability to establish an ideal separation/distance when assessing the group dynamics.
  • The Police Officer (As assessed by man): The Dominant Cluster
    • Says to the man “you can see what it looks like right?” Showing that while he understands the man, that it does look like he was breaking in.
    • Stops him to get clarity, “Do you actually live here?”
    • Another accusatory question,  “Where’s you key, bro?”
  • The Police Officer (As likely assessed internally): The Comfortable Cluster
    • Allows the man to move around with the shovel, which could be used as a weapon, and something he probably wouldn’t allow if he felt threatened.
    • Allows the man to state his case and to call his mom.
    • He attempts the joke, “well, we usually don’t have some try (to break in) and then just sit on the porch waiting (for the police).”
  • Add a comment with the assessments that you made, but that we didn’t make, so that other viewers can benefit from& your analysis as well.[/expand]

Enhance The Workout

  • Repeat
    • Watch the video as many times as is needed to observe each of the three assessments (the man, the officer as perceived by the man, and the officer’s likely internal assessment), to help build your file folders for the recognition of each cluster.
    • This will help you make these assessments more quickly when you are the one having the conversation and have to consider both what you are observing as well as what you are saying and what you’re hearing. The more repetitions you have make it easier to recognize the displayed behaviors when the situation is more challenging.
  • Reflect
    • Think about the two potential sources of discomfort that you identified in the task.  What information would you need to see in future segments of the video to prove that one or the other is more likely?  List these out if possible.
    • Before considering both possible sources (violent AND non-violent or criminal AND non-criminal) did you find yourself jumping to a conclusion about where this interaction is heading?  That might be a natural reaction, but keep in mind that remaining objective requires that you consider multiple causes for the observed behavior and haven’t shut yourself off to contradictory information.
  • Act
    • In the same as Part 2 of this exercise, throughout the week, use some conversations that you are in as an opportunity to practice detaching yourself and viewing the interaction as an outsider, where you can observe yourself through the eyes of another.
    • It won’t come naturally at first, it absolutely takes work, but is a skill that once developed, can be a huge asset in your ability to assess other people and influence their future actions and behavior.

Related Content:

  • The Full Exercise
    • Part 1
    • Part 2
    • Part 3: THIS EXERCISE
    • Part 4
    • Part 5
    • Part 6
    • Debrief

Reading Behavior In Conversation: Part 2

January 16, 2018 in Assessing Individuals

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This is the second of a six part exercise to read behavior of both sides of a conversation using an incident where police officers were called to a home where there was the report of a potential break in.

(Video Source)

The Workout

  • Context: In the following video, two police officers talk with a man who was reported being seen outside of a home while carrying a shovel.  In this second part, the first officer who spoke with the man has returned to her car to check on his information, while the second officer is approaching the man to talk to him.
  • Because of the length of the video, this exercise will be broken up into a six-part series.
  • Task 1: First, assess the man being contacted’s behavior and identify the observations that support that assessment.
  • Task 2: Second, assess the police officer’s behavior and identify the observations that support that assessment.  View this from the perspective of the man being contacted.
  • Task 3: Third, Identify the cluster of behavior that the police officer likely believes that he is displaying towards the man and identify the observations that support that assessment.
  • Note: We acknowledge that the assessment in task #3 is HIGHLY subjective.  We aren’t in the officer’s head and haven’t talked to him.  We are basing this assessment (when it is different than the behavior observed in Task #2) on the observations and behaviors we can collect in this video.
  • Write your answers on a sheet of paper before viewing our answers

View Our Answers

  • The Man: The Submissive Cluster
    • The man refers to the police officer as “sir.”
    • The man stays seated, making himself look smaller than the officer standing over him
    • The man offers the shovel to the officer and quickly explains that he was doing nothing wrong with the shovel, to show that he is being non-threatening to the officer.
  • The Police Officer (As assessed by man): The Dominant Cluster
    • Opens with an accusatory joke: “What are you doing breaking into your mom’s house?”  While likely intended as a joke, there is the inherent stressor that comes with the accusation of a crime from a police officer.
    • Walks onto the porch: blocking the man’s only exit route or option to re-establish distance from the officer.  Assessed as dominance as it eliminates the opportunity for the man to establish a proxemic separation (group dynamics) that would make him comfortable or not feel threatened.
    • Entry into the man’s anchor point as the porch is part of the home.
    • The question, “what’s with the shovel,” is a direct question, something often seen in the dominant cluster.
  • The Police Officer (As likely assessed internally): The Comfortable Cluster
    • Approaches the man casually and not in an overtly aggressive way.
    • The use of the joke, “What are you doing breaking into your mom’s house?” is said in a light, non-aggressive voice.
    • After going up the stairs to the porch, leans on one arm on the railing (you can see the reflection in the glass door), which is a relaxed posture.
  • Add a comment with the assessments that you made, but that we didn’t make, so that we can check for those assessments and provide feedback on those specific observations.  We will add them to our answers in the post itself for future viewings of the exercise.

Enhance The Workout

  • Repeat
    • Rewatch the video as many times as is necessary to identify each of the observations that we have identified for the man, the way the officer is likely being perceived by the man, and the way the officer is likely perceiving his own actions.
    • Despite the fact that there is only 10 seconds of interaction, that provides a long enough period of time to build a cluster of at least 3 indicators for each assessment.
    • Being able to quickly establish the initial cluster (the baseline for the man being contacted), is critical so that you can have a point of reference to measure any changes in behavior against.
  • Reflect
    • Are there any times in your life where you have observed a discrepancy between the type of behavior you think you are displaying and the way another person might be perceiving you?
    • This is what is commonly referred to as a miscommunication, where what someone says (whether verbally or nonverbally) is interpreted differently by the person receiving the message than the person communicating it.
    • Think about times where you may have been part of a miscommunication and assess the difference in the cluster of behavior used to express whatever was being talked about.  The goal isn’t to focus on the content of the words conversation itself, but in the way it was expressed.
  • Act
    • As we seek to minimize miscommunications, being able to view a conversation that you are having from a detached perspective is a skill that takes practice.  You are viewing this in a POV way as the footage is from the officer’s body camera, but try to envision seeing this as an outsider.  How is the officer standing? How is he (likely) sizing up the man? How is the man (likely) sizing up the officer?
    • Throughout the week, use some conversations that you are in as an opportunity to practice detaching yourself and viewing the interaction as an outsider, where you can observe yourself through the eyes of another.  It won’t come naturally at first, it absolutely takes work, but is a skill that once developed, can be a huge asset in your ability to assess other people and influence their future actions and behavior.

Related Content:

  • The Full Exercise
    • Part 1
    • Part 2: THIS EXERCISE
    • Part 3
    • Part 4
    • Part 5
    • Part 6
    • Debrief

Reading Behavior In Conversation: Part 1

January 10, 2018 in Assessing Individuals

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This is the first of a six part exercise to read behavior of both sides of a conversation using an incident where police officers were called to a home where there was the report of a potential break in.

(Video Source)

The Workout

  • Context: In the following video, two police officers talk with a man who was reported being seen outside of a home while carrying a shovel.  Because of the length of the video, this exercise will be broken up into a six-part series.
  • Task 1: As you watch the video, your task is to observe both the police officer and the man being contacted to determine what cluster of behavior is being displayed by each and identify the observable indicators that support that assessment.
  • Task 2: Would the behavior of the man who is being contacted attract your attention as being an anomaly or would you assess it as being part of the baseline for this type of encounter?
  • Write your answers on a sheet of paper before viewing our answers

View Our Answers

  • The Man: Displaying the Uncomfortable Cluster at a low intensity.
    • Stands up when the officer approaches
    • Explains that he is at his mom’s house and offers his name and his mom’s name
    • A bit of a stutter with his words
    • He shifts his weight back and forth
    • Use of illustrating gestures and explains how he comes here every day
    • Licks his lips
    • Rocks backwards when the officer mentions that someone reported a break in
  • The Police Officer: Displays the comfortable cluster
    • Laughs as she realizes he isn’t breaking in
    • Simply asks if everything is alright
    • Calm tone of voice
    • Is accommodating – says “ok” a lot
  • When considering the man’s behavior:
    • I would, at this point, assess the man’s behavior as being within the baseline.
    • As a uniformed police officer just approached him and mentioned that they are responding to the report of a break-in, that would likely elicit a threat or stress response.
    • It is at a low intensity because the displays indicating discomfort aren’t overly exaggerated.
  • Add a comment with the assessments that you made, but that we didn’t make, so that we can check for those assessments and provide feedback on those specific observations.  We will add them to our answers in the post itself for future viewings of the exercise.

Enhance The Workout

  • Repeat
    • For each of the observations we have listed above (for each person), re-watch the video and observe each of them multiple times so that the observation and the assessment of each one becomes something you pick up on very quickly and rapidly.
  • Reflect
    • Consider how little time you just had (the entire video was only 70 seconds long) to make a first impression about each person.
    • As the video continues in the future exercises, you will have a much greater quantity of information available to you, but the first few seconds of an encounter are what establish a set of expectations that you will have moving forward and to help you recognize shifts in behavior.
    • As shifts in behavior are very important to identify, having a point of comparison for future assessments is a crucial part of a behavioral approach to recognizing threats, and establishing the initial cluster of behavior observed accurately and rapidly is the first step in the process.
  • Act
    • In this exercise, you are viewing a conversation from a removed perspective.  You are hearing it and observing it (through body camera footage), but aren’t taking part in it.
    • One of the milestones as you pursue mastery in a topic is when you can begin to see yourself interacting with others, as if you are another person.
    • That isn’t always a natural thing to do, so throughout the week, when you’re part of a conversation, but not really active in it, take a moment to observe the other two people deeply and think about how someone else would be observing you in that situation.

Related Content:

  • The Full Exercise

Exercise: Assessing Individual People Using a Bottom-Up Analysis

December 22, 2017 in Assessing Individuals

For the holidays, here is one of our favorite exercises and one that we get the most amount of benefit from.

Generally speaking, here is what it is:

  • You are going to observe a single person, for an extended amount of time, in order to figure out:
    • Where they have come from
    • Where they “are”
    • Where they are going
  • You will do this through a process of deep observation and analysis, but before you answer those questions, you are going to collect as much data and facts about the person (through observation). The observations come BEFORE you make any judgments, assessments or decisions about them.

Here is what you need:

  • A coffee shop that is fairly busy
  • An hour to an hour-and-a-half of time so that you aren’t rushed and can do this exercise to completion.

The Setup Before Going:

  • On a sheet of paper:
    • Draw a line down the middle of the page from top to bottom
    • Draw a second line from left to right about two-thirds of the way down the page
    • This will create four boxes, with the top two boxes being bigger than the bottom two boxes.
  • Label:
    • The top left box “Uncontrolled Behavior”
    • The top right box “Chosen Behavior”
    • The bottom left box “Where they are coming from”
    • The bottom right box “Where they are going”
  • Here is a screen shot of the form that I use on my iPad.

On-Scene Setup:

  • Go to a coffee shop, get yourself a drink and take a seat at a table where you can observe a person inconspicuously.
  • Ideally you are able to position yourself where the person you are observing is directly in front of you so that your observations are a little less noticeable by being able to simply glance up from your notebook instead of turning your head and making it clear that you are looking at the person.
  • If possible, find a table where you can observe a person who is alone and who is doing work on their computer as they are often less aware of their surroundings and going to be in the coffee shop for a longer period of time than the person who is just there to meet someone else or just there to eat or drink.

Step 1: Observe Uncontrollable Behavior

  • Starting with the box on the top left, begin by observing their body language deeply from the ground up. Be as descriptive as you can be about what you are observing.
  • The end state for this step is to assign them to one of the four clusters of individual behavior ONCE YOU HAVE listed at least 10 or so total observations.
  • Note: You can move through this stage fairly quickly, because you will be able to expand on it as you move forward, but make sure the assessment and assignment to a cluster is based on the observations you make and not before.

Step #2: Observe The Choices They Have Made

  • When that first step is complete, move to the box on the top right of the page.
  • Here, you will list out every single choice that person made before coming to this coffee shop. For example:
    • What are they wearing? Be descriptive.
    • What grooming choices did they make? Be descriptive.
    • What objects do they have with them? Be descriptive.
    • Where have they placed those objects? Be descriptive.
  • The end state for this step is to have a list of 25 to 30 different observations about what a person did before coming here (clothing and grooming) and what they did upon arrival (what they took out and where they put everything).
  • Note #1: Don’t worry about doing any analysis at this stage of the process, because you don’t want to slow yourself down or begin making determinations before you have enough facts about the person. Your only goal is to collect the dots that you will later connect. Where possible, be overly descriptive. It isn’t just that they are wearing shoes, but what style are they, what is the brand, what is the condition of them, how much did they cost? Dig in.
  • Note #2: Throughout this step, you will also notice many more of their uncontrolled behaviors as well. Before moving on, strive for a list of 20 or so of these behaviors as well to ensure that you aren’t limiting yourself to the easy observable or immediately noticeable behaviors, but continuously adding depth to it as well.

Step #3: Analyze Your Information and Determine Where They Are Going

  • Once I have around 30 chosen behaviors and 20 uncontrolled behaviors, I move into the bottom right box, of the sheet, which is where I focus on their intentions.
  • What I am trying to figure out is, what are they going to do next?
  • Task 1: Identify two possible choices for what the person will do once they are done with whatever thing they are working on.
  • Task 2: Once those two options are written down, determine which of those is their most likely next action and which of those two is their least likely next action. Write out your justification for your prediction using the observations you made in the first two steps.
  • Task 3: For the most likely next action, list out the things that you will have to see to prove that your assessment about what they are going to do next is correct. For example, if you believe they are going to leave, you may list out they will first close their computer, then put it in their backpack, then standup, then put their backpack on, etc. Be as descriptive as they can be.
  • Task 4: For the option that you believe is the least likely next step, list out the steps they would have to follow to do that as well to ensure you are also considering the behaviors that would prove your most likely assessment as being incorrect.
  • Note: This step is incredibly important to do before shifting to the fourth and final step of the exercise because if at any point, if the person’s behavior changes, you have already anticipated what those shifts might mean and you will have an early warning about what they are likely to do next.

Step #4: Analyzing Your Information and Determining Where the Person Came From

  • Once the other three boxes are filled in, your final step is to begin thinking about where the person is coming from. It could be literal, where were they right before they came here? Or it could be a bit earlier in their life as you ask, what is this person’s background?
  • What led them to be able to be here, right now, doing what they are doing?
  • What is their profession? What is their (likely) economic status? What do they value? What is their motivation?
  • Note: For many people (to include us), this is the hardest step in the process, especially when trying it for the first time. As Sherlock Holmes notes in his short stories, it is much easier for many people to take something they see and project that out into the future than it is to see something in the present and figure out what led them to this moment. Thinking forwards and thinking backwards are two essential skills to be developed.

In the next few weeks, we will add a few more pieces to this exercise, with an in-depth explanation about why we do this, how to self-assess your own performance and how it fits into our baselining process. But in the meantime, get your first repetition of this exercise under your belt so that you have a point of reference and personal experience for the time when that additional information comes out.

Identifying Discomfort While Waiting In Line

December 1, 2017 in Assessing Individuals

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In this video, you will see people waiting in line to order pizza at a Pizza Port restaurant in Southern California on a busy Friday night in the summer.

The Workout

  • 1: Identify the behaviors, gestures, and cues that reveal the man in the grey shirt as being uncomfortable while he waits in line to order a pizza.
  • 2: Identify one potential violent or malicious reason for his display of discomfort.
  • 3: List the behaviors you would need to observe to lead you to believe that his discomfort reveals a violent intent.
  • 4: Identify one potential non-violent or legitimate reason for his display of discomfort.
  • 5: List the behaviors your would need to observe to feel confident that his discomfort is not due to him having a violent intent.
  • 6: Based on what you observe in this video, identify the option (whether violent or non-violent) that is likely more probable and explain why.
  • Write your answers on a sheet of paper before viewing our answers

View Our Answers

1: Identify the behaviors, gestures, and cues that reveal the man in the grey shirt as being uncomfortable.

  • Arms crossed
  • Swaying back and forth
  • Elevated situational awareness
  • Shifting weight back and forth
  • Rocking side to side to see what is up ahead
  • Hands moving around: from hands to hip to rubbing his face, back to crossed
  • Minimal conversation with friend

2: Identify one potential violent or malicious reason for his display of discomfort.

  • Could be uncomfortable because he is nervous about trying to kidnap the kids in front of him

3: List the behaviors you would need to observe to lead you to believe that his discomfort reveals a violent intent.

  • Focused observation of the kid’s father (guy in the blue tee-shirt who replaces the kids in line)
  • Focused observation of the kids themselves
  • Tracking the kids movement as they move from the line (they go to some video games against the wall)
  • Identification of any one else who may be associated with the kids.

4: Identify one potential non-violent or legitimate reason for his display of discomfort.

  • Could be uncomfortable because he is waiting in a long line to order and doesn’t know where he will sit once he orders (it is open seating and there is no hostess to assign them a table)

5: List the behaviors your would need to observe to feel confident that his discomfort is not due to him having a violent intent.

  • Crowding forward in line to get closer to the point of ordering
  • Increased situational awareness to identify potential places where they could sit once he has ordered
  • Unfocused situational awareness as he glances at anything that catches his eye

6: Based on what you observe in this video, identify the option (whether violent or non-violent) that is likely more probable and explain why.

  • Likely cause: Non-violent – looking for a place to sit
  • There is occasional looks at the kids, but not for a prolonged period
  • Situational awareness appears to be unfocused as he looks around at multiple tables/groups and isn’t focused on anything specific (like the kids) that he continually comes back to
  • Maintains distance and separation from the group ahead of him in line
  • His friend (man in black tee-shirt) doesn’t sit down after they talk, but begins looking at the crowded seated area (it is open seating) to see if anything is open, and then returns to stand in a habitual area instead of claiming an anchor point.

Add a comment with the assessments that you made, but that we didn’t make, so that we can check for those assessments and provide feedback on those specific observations.  We will add them to our answers in the post itself for future viewings of the exercise.[/expand]

Enhance The Workout

  • Repeat
    • One of the goals for this exercise is to develop file folders for the uncomfortable cluster and do that in a situation where it is often observed (in long and slow moving lines and where anchor points are not guaranteed).
    • So watch and repeat the video as many times as needed to observe and identify each of the uncomfortable cues present.
    • For each of the two scenarios being considered (violent and non-violent reasons) continue to watch him and add to the behaviors you would need to see that would lead you to assess either the violent or non-violent causes for his behavior as being more likely.
  • Reflect
    • A second goal for this exercise is to make a habit of intentionally considering both the violent and non-violent reasons for behavior.
    • THIS IS A HUGE COMPONENT TO REMAINING OBJECTIVE IN OUR OBSERVATIONS.
    • With the exception of times when it is clear that behavior is displayed at such a high intensity that it requires an immediate decision, we can reduce the amount of uncertainty we face in our decision making by defining each possible options for behavior and actively searching for the information to either confirm or deny our assumptions about the cause.
    • The importance of doing this can’t be over-stated.
  • Act
    • The goal for taking this exercise from the computer to real life is to break domain dependence.  Identify an area in your life where you often observe extended lines of people  and think about the ways you may have seen people display discomfort in those settings.
    • Think about things that the company or whoever controls that area could have done to make people feel more comfortable despite the fact that it is taking a long time to order.

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Assessing Groups and Mapping An Organization

November 28, 2017 in Assessing Groups

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A common task for military and police units is to build a map of a criminal, insurgent or terrorist network that they are targeting. Often done through surveillance (observation), it is through understanding the relationships between members of an organization and identifying sources of information that the required information begins to present itself to build a map.  That is what today’s exercise is focused on.

Click the “More” button to view the exercise.

Continue reading »

Personas In A Doctor’s Office

November 17, 2017 in Baselining

Photo Credit

In today’s exercise, you will be practicing and developing your ability to conduct the deliberate search in a doctor’s office.

The Workout

  • Using the photo above as something to jog your memory of a doctor’s office, identify all of the baseline (non-violent) personas present inside of a doctor’s office and what their purpose/intention is for being there.
  • Write your answers on a sheet of paper before viewing our answers

View Our Answers

  1. The doctors: provide medical treatment to patients
  2. The nurses: support the doctor’s treatment through preparing patients (taking vitals), conduct initial assessment, and follow up with patients
  3. Receptionist: Process incoming patients, ensure administrative tasks for patients are done, process payment upon completion, conduct scheduling.
  4. Patients: People in the office to receive treatment.
  5. Family/friends of patient: people to help the patient get to the doctor, provide support
  6. Medical sales professionals: People attempting to sell the doctor

Add a comment with the assessments that you made, but that we didn’t make, so that we can check for those assessments and provide feedback on those specific observations.  We will add them to our answers in the post itself for future viewings of the exercise.

Enhance The Workout
  • Repeat
    • The goal for this exercise was to improve your ability to conduct mental simulations for places you are about to visit, so for each of the personas you expect to see in a doctor’s office, go back and picture them doing their jobs.
      • Where are they standing?
      • What are they wearing?
      • What is their behavior like?
  • Reflect
    • Consider any personas that you missed and diagnose why you think you made the error.
    • By conducting a self-driven failure analysis, you can:
      • Identify gaps in your understanding of what types of people make places “work.”
      • Identify if you have natural trends towards rushing through simulations and missing key components through lack of attention.
  • Act
    • When you are walking into a store this week (any store), spend a moment in the parking lot to repeat this exercises before entering and check for similarities.
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Identifying The Criteria For An Anchor Point

November 10, 2017 in Assessing The Environment

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In today’s exercise, you will be practicing and developing your ability to identify anchor points in an airport setting.

The Workout

  • Answer the following questions as you observe one layer of an anchor point’s defenses:
    • What is the specific anchor point being defended?
    • What is the buffer zone that exists around the anchor point? (Only consider what is visible in the video)
    • What are the security measures put in place by the airline to ensure that only ticketed passengers board the plane and what purpose do they likely serve?
  • Write your answers on a sheet of paper before viewing our answers

[expand title=”View Our Answers”]

  • What is the specific anchor point being defended?
    • The airplane
  • What is the buffer zone that exists around the anchor point visible in the video?
    • The gate entrance, which connects to the plane through the jetway.  This gives some stand off from the anchor point itself (the plane) to ensure that only ticketed passengers board (as opposed to checking the ticket at the door to the plane).
  • What are the security measures put in place by the airline to ensure that only ticketed passengers board the plane and what purpose do they likely serve?
    • The sign with the flight number in front of the attendant’s stand.  This is likely designed to make it clear which flight was boarding at this gate and minimize the number of people who don’t meet the criteria for entry (having a ticket for that specific flight) yet try to enter the anchor point.  A filtering mechanism to reduce the number of false positives – as opposed to a person who is intentionally trying to board the plane without the appropriate ticket.
    • An immovable barrier to the attendant’s left (right side of the screen) to prevent people from boarding and not getting their ticket scanned.  This is likely put in place to cover the attendant’s blind spot as her field of view is naturally focused in the direction of the line where people are approaching from.  For someone to try and jump over this barrier, it would be a clear indicator (no uncertainty) that the person was trying to gain unauthorized access.
    • The adjustable/extendable barrier to the right of the attendant’s right (middle-left side of the screen).  This is likely designed to make the choke point more narrow and force passengers to enter the jetway in a single file line and ensure that everyone passes the attendant to have their ticket scanned.  While a person ducking under that barrier, doesn’t offer the same level of certainty that exists with the immovable barrier to the attendant’s left, this barrier is still covered by observation and offers the flexibility to adjust the size of the choke point if needed.
    • The gate attendant herself. Complimented by the technology of the scanner, she is there to ensure that each person entering the jetway has a ticket and that the ticket is for this particular flight.
    • A door behind the gate attendant that can be closed and locks automatically (requiring key card access) for the times when this gate isn’t monitored by an attendant.  This allows for controlled access to the jetway when it isn’t under direct observation.
    • The gate attendant’s directions to line up in boarding groups, this puts all of the passengers into a single area, allowing for observation of the entire group, as well as to make it clear who isn’t going to follow the directions and tries to wait outside of the corrals.
    • The other passengers waiting in line to board the flight. On a SW flight, you will often hear people asking each other “what number are you?” This creates conditions for passengers to assist in the control of the anchor point, by either identifying people who are in the wrong boarding group (us A-List members are very protective of our spot in line), or helping to identify people who are at the wrong gate and trying to board the wrong plane (which, from my experience, happens far too frequently).

Add a comment with the assessments that you made, but that we didn’t make, so that we can check for those assessments and provide feedback on those specific observations.  We will add them to our answers in the post itself for future viewings of the exercise.[/expand]

Enhance The Workout

  • Repeat
    • One of the goals for this exercise was to observe how organizations establish the security around an anchor point, so watch the video again, with the complete list of factors available to you and focus your eyes on that specific assessment until the recognition of the factor feels natural.
    • For assistance, you can review the indicators for anchor points from the cluster cards.
  • Reflect
    • Take a moment to think about each of the behaviors you noted in your original assessment and which factors you missed. Why do you think you missed and made each of them?
    • Was it a factor of not knowing what to look for or was it the result of natural habits you have that guide where and what you look for?
    • If it was habits, think about deliberately compensating for the areas you didn’t consider looking so that you can develop your ability to identify all of the factors present.
  • Act
    • The video in today’s exercise is shot at a Southwest Airlines gate in Newark Airport as the “A” Boarding Group makes their way down the jetway, but the factors that they use to establish an anchor point are ones that you can observe in other settings.
    • Go to a nearby grocery store or drug store that has a pharmacy inside of it and repeat this exercise by observing all of the ways that they establish security around the anchor point behind the counter. While some factors will be the same, there will be some differences that are worth noting.
    • When you have completed your observations of the pharmacy, take a moment to reflect about the behavior you were just displaying should someone have been watching you.  Where did you position yourself to observe the security? How long were you there for? How did you try to disguise your intentions? What cluster of behavior were you giving off (think through each portion of your body and consider the body language that you were displaying)?

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